Belfast East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast East: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:	Gavin Robinson (DUP)
County/Area:	Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	70,337
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
DUP	25,402	54.0%
Alliance	15,799	33.6%
UUP	1,416	3.0%
MIN	1,372	2.9%
Green	1,062	2.3%
SF	1,006	2.1%
OTH	576	1.2%
SDLP	397	0.8%
DUP Majority	9,603	20.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Belfast East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Belfast East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Belfast East
Belfast South
Down North

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Ballymacarrett	3,516	Belfast East	97	23	1,426	833	6	123	0	33	2,541
Belfast	Beersbridge	3,431	Belfast East	113	3	1,682	985	26	144	0	39	2,992
Belfast	Belmont	3,522	Belfast East	75	8	1,100	1,005	36	11	0	26	2,261
Belfast	Bloomfield	3,462	Belfast East	97	23	1,466	1,012	40	123	0	33	2,794
Belfast	Connswater	3,520	Belfast East	96	12	1,438	911	32	122	0	33	2,644
Belfast	Cregagh	1,685	Belfast South	33	8	559	385	15	42	0	11	1,053
Belfast	Garnerville	3,240	Belfast East	72	3	1,057	931	34	11	0	25	2,133
Belfast	Gilnahirk	3,551	Belfast East	85	2	1,234	946	40	15	0	29	2,351
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,676	Belfast East	30	7	558	321	12	28	0	10	966
Belfast	Knock	3,645	Belfast East	72	17	1,061	1,158	34	11	0	25	2,378
Belfast	Merok	3,074	Belfast East	65	14	1,289	582	17	44	0	22	2,033
Belfast	Orangefield	3,393	Belfast East	68	16	1,258	778	31	23	0	23	2,197
Belfast	Sandown	3,196	Belfast East	74	2	1,086	845	35	21	0	25	2,088
Belfast	Shandon	3,742	Belfast East	83	2	1,206	1,001	39	15	0	28	2,374
Belfast	Stormont	3,654	Belfast East	74	17	1,084	1,048	35	11	0	25	2,294
Belfast	Sydenham	3,321	Belfast East	90	2	1,382	782	18	115	0	31	2,420
Belfast	Woodstock	41	Belfast South	1	0	18	11	0	1	0	0	31
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballyhanwood	2,220	Belfast East	40	1	874	340	19	6	0	14	1,294
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carrowreagh	3,070	Belfast East	46	1	1,175	451	26	8	0	19	1,726
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dundonald	2,235	Belfast East	43	1	954	366	20	6	0	15	1,405
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Enler	2,167	Belfast East	33	1	1,036	380	22	7	0	16	1,495
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Graham's Bridge	2,132	Belfast East	20	1	976	369	22	7	0	16	1,411
	Total	63,493		1,407	164	23,919	15,440	559	894	0	498	42,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Belvoir	3,193	Belfast South	79	374	859	236	33	216	0	11	1,808
Belfast	Blackstaff	3,768	Belfast South	128	511	1,271	371	189	258	0	18	2,746
Belfast	Central	4,325	Belfast South	69	1,021	923	588	334	1,433	0	26	4,394
Belfast	Cregagh	1,493	Belfast South	35	144	401	183	30	104	0	5	902
Belfast	Finaghy	3,485	Belfast South	69	530	528	165	29	445	0	10	1,776
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,951	Belfast East	43	173	545	199	32	87	0	6	1,085
Belfast	Malone	3,478	Belfast South	62	739	357	286	83	302	0	9	1,838
Belfast	Musgrave	3,553	Belfast South	53	638	434	167	32	647	0	11	1,982
Belfast	Ormeau	3,488	Belfast South	47	751	516	590	267	376	0	14	2,561
Belfast	Ravenhill	3,133	Belfast South	61	358	614	580	126	143	0	10	1,892
Belfast	Rosetta	3,721	Belfast South	68	589	519	573	135	322	0	11	2,217
Belfast	Stranmillis	3,921	Belfast South	132	936	745	534	278	562	0	18	3,205
Belfast	Upper Malone	3,551	Belfast South	77	472	752	260	45	234	0	11	1,851
Belfast	Windsor	3,893	Belfast South	152	1,065	1,091	899	410	591	0	25	4,233
Belfast	Woodstock	3,102	Belfast South	110	438	954	438	73	359	0	15	2,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Beechill	2,452	Belfast South	58	409	506	314	24	143	0	8	1,462
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Cairnshill	2,441	Belfast South	47	372	368	264	20	157	0	7	1,235
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff East	2,056	Belfast South	46	285	434	197	20	161	0	6	1,149
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carryduff West	2,374	Belfast South	52	394	411	261	22	208	0	7	1,355
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Galwally	2,358	Belfast South	48	389	376	286	20	138	0	7	1,264
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockbracken	2,325	Belfast South	45	409	327	280	20	171	0	7	1,259
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Newtownbreda	2,047	Belfast South	43	310	367	277	18	87	0	6	1,108
	Total	66,108		1,524	11,307	13,298	7,948	2,240	7,144	0	248	43,709

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Belfast	Garnerville	225	Belfast East	0	0	48	27	8	2	46	3	134
North Down and Ards	Ballycrochan	2,583	Down North	0	4	540	88	50	16	601	36	1,335
North Down and Ards	Ballygrainey	3,179	Down North	0	6	718	135	119	25	1,020	62	2,085
North Down and Ards	Ballyholme	2,870	Down North	0	5	563	152	122	24	702	43	1,611
North Down and Ards	Ballymagee	2,974	Down North	0	5	728	121	69	21	813	49	1,806
North Down and Ards	Bloomfield	2,784	Down North	0	5	631	104	98	20	856	52	1,766
North Down and Ards	Broadway	2,748	Down North	0	5	596	121	107	21	702	42	1,594
North Down and Ards	Bryansburn	2,842	Down North	0	41	513	283	121	26	558	34	1,576
North Down and Ards	Carrowdore	840	Down North	0	12	308	29	9	5	141	9	513
North Down and Ards	Castle	2,752	Down North	0	5	624	84	85	18	876	53	1,745
North Down and Ards	Clandeboye	2,697	Down North	0	16	687	161	167	25	524	32	1,612
North Down and Ards	Cultra	2,894	Down North	0	37	525	258	204	28	548	33	1,633
North Down and Ards	Donaghadee	2,869	Down North	0	5	734	87	50	18	840	51	1,785
North Down and Ards	Groomsport	2,836	Down North	0	4	628	104	58	18	709	43	1,564
North Down and Ards	Harbour	2,984	Down North	0	5	550	227	163	30	973	59	2,007
North Down and Ards	Helen's Bay	2,770	Down North	0	34	536	237	181	26	511	31	1,556
North Down and Ards	Holywood	3,095	Belfast East	0	43	617	300	243	32	642	39	1,916
North Down and Ards	Kilcooley	2,695	Down North	0	13	744	160	82	24	766	46	1,835
North Down and Ards	Loughries	1,267	Down North	0	16	414	45	13	8	197	12	705
North Down and Ards	Loughview	2,826	Belfast East	0	25	850	229	235	34	684	41	2,098
North Down and Ards	Rathgael	2,444	Down North	0	24	613	139	72	21	595	36	1,500
North Down and Ards	Rathmore	2,869	Down North	0	41	722	147	80	24	544	33	1,591
North Down and Ards	Silverbirch	2,846	Down North	0	5	732	94	54	19	879	53	1,836
North Down and Ards	Silverstream	2,513	Down North	0	40	629	200	97	26	637	39	1,668
North Down and Ards	Warren	2,931	Down North	0	5	690	107	61	20	786	48	1,717
	Total	64,333		0	401	14,940	3,639	2,548	531	16,150	979	39,188

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast East

The new seat of Belfast East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Belfast East
Belfast	Ballymacarrett	3,761	Belfast East	97	23	1,426	833	6	123	0	33	2,541
Belfast	Beersbridge	4,430	Belfast East	113	3	1,682	985	26	144	0	39	2,992
Belfast	Belmont	3,347	Belfast East	75	8	1,100	1,005	36	11	0	26	2,261
Belfast	Bloomfield	4,135	Belfast East	97	23	1,466	1,012	40	123	0	33	2,794
Belfast	Connswater	3,913	Belfast East	96	12	1,438	911	32	122	0	33	2,644
Belfast	Garnerville	219	Down North	0	0	48	27	8	2	46	3	134
Belfast	Garnerville	3,159	Belfast East	72	3	1,057	931	34	11	0	25	2,133
Belfast	Gilnahirk	3,481	Belfast East	85	2	1,234	946	40	15	0	29	2,351
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,430	Belfast East	30	7	558	321	12	28	0	10	966
Belfast	Hillfoot	1,642	Belfast South	43	173	545	199	32	87	0	6	1,085
Belfast	Knock	3,520	Belfast East	72	17	1,061	1,158	34	11	0	25	2,378
Belfast	Merok	3,010	Belfast East	65	14	1,289	582	17	44	0	22	2,033
Belfast	Orangefield	3,255	Belfast East	68	16	1,258	778	31	23	0	23	2,197
Belfast	Sandown	3,092	Belfast East	74	2	1,086	845	35	21	0	25	2,088
Belfast	Shandon	3,516	Belfast East	83	2	1,206	1,001	39	15	0	28	2,374
Belfast	Stormont	3,398	Belfast East	74	17	1,084	1,048	35	11	0	25	2,294
Belfast	Sydenham	3,583	Belfast East	90	2	1,382	782	18	115	0	31	2,420
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballyhanwood	1,914	Belfast East	40	1	874	340	19	6	0	14	1,294
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Carrowreagh	2,554	Belfast East	46	1	1,175	451	26	8	0	19	1,726
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dundonald	2,082	Belfast East	43	1	954	366	20	6	0	15	1,405
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Enler	2,215	Belfast East	33	1	1,036	380	22	7	0	16	1,495
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Graham's Bridge	2,090	Belfast East	20	1	976	369	22	7	0	16	1,411
North Down and Ards	Holywood	3,146	Down North	0	43	617	300	243	32	642	39	1,916
North Down and Ards	Loughview	3,445	Down North	0	25	850	229	235	34	684	41	2,098
	Total	70,337		1,416	397	25,402	15,799	1,062	1,006	1,372	576	47,030

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.